IRA's Clean Electricity Tax Credits (Sections 48E and 45Y) are an under-appreciated boon for new nuclear power 1

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  1. This phases out when the electricity sector hits 25% of 2022 emissions right? Is that country rid or specific to some regional subset? Do private plants and municipal grids count? Is it adjusted for the size of the sector (does it phase out when emissions per MWh is down to 25% or simple emissions? Seems like this credit could last basically forever if Wyoming for example decides to keep burning a bunch of coal.

    1. @Jon

      The Inflation Reduction Act is a US law. It begins to phase out based on US (national) electricity sector emissions. That includes all grid electricity, including public and investor owned generation.

      It is possible that the credit could last a long time. But it is unlikely that Wyoming, the site of one of the ADRP projects, will be responsible for any extensions because it wants to retain its coal fleet. In addition to the demonstration Natrium in Kemmerer, WY, TerraPower and PacificCorp are already performing site evaluations for 5 more power stations, each of which would be likely to host several Natrium units.

      If the future remotely resembles my internal predictions, the credit program will not last beyond 2040 because the specified conditions will have been met by then with momentum heading for nearly zero emissions from US electricity generation.

      26 U. S. Code 45Y(d)(3) describes the conditions for the phase out. (Section 48E references this section, equalizing the two programs.)

      (d) Credit phase-out
      (3) Applicable year
      For purposes of this subsection, the term “applicable year” means the LATER of—
      (A) the calendar year in which the Secretary determines that the annual greenhouse gas emissions from the production of electricity in the United States are equal to or less than 25 percent of the annual greenhouse gas emissions from the production of electricity in the United States for calendar year 2022, OR
      (B) 2032.

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