It is going to be a short post – I was up way too late last night watching a scrappy little college team take one of the elite programs in all of college basketball all the way to the wire in the National Championship game. Congratulations to both teams for an excellent game.
The report commissioned by the Vermont Legislature on the economic impact of various scenarios associated with the continued operation (or not) of Vermont Yankee has been released. You can find the Executive Summary at Consensus Economic and Fiscal Impact Analyses Associated with the Future of the Vermont Yankee Power Plant.
This is a document that Vermont voters should read, though it’s conclusions are not as clearly stated as they could be. Here is a summary statement found on pages 8-9 of what might happen to the state economy if Vermont Yankee is shut down. Please note that the consultants were tasked with determining the effect on Vermont only:
In the VY Shutdown Scenario:
1) Negative plant shutdown employment impacts are likely to be at about -1,060 jobs (2013-2031 average), relative to the VY Relicense scenario, and prior to SAFSTOR, and at about -950 jobs with the implementation of the SAFSTOR decommissioning option over the period 2013-2031. Secondary indirect and induced economic impacts would be higher, except for the fact that nearly 60% of VY employees reside (and spend most of their personal income)outside of Vermont – primarily in NH and MA.
2) Even assuming replacement power at market prices, the retail power bill is likely to be higher in the event of plant closure, resulting in additional negative economic impacts. Power bill impacts associated with the plant shutdown will further reduce employment by about 120 jobs per year and output by more than $15 million per year in 2012 dollars.
3) Revenue Sharing Agreement impacts, estimated at the low end of the possible range (55%) leave the VY Shutdown scenario about 120 jobs per year below the VY Relicense scenario, during the relevant 11 year effective RSA period from 2013-2023.
4) Total VY Shutdown scenario impacts, relative to the Relicense scenario, result in about 1,100 fewer jobs per year and real disposable personal income levels more than $60 million per year (in 2012 dollars) below VY Relicense levels between 2013 and 2031.
No wonder Peter (Germany gets 30% of its electricity from solar) Shumlin called the vote on the plant certificate of public good before the study was released and its results digested and discussed.